October 28, 2004
I fully expect to see the Democrats eventually lose that headlock they've enjoyed on black voters for the past 40 years. Some polls indicate that the change may begin with this Presidential election.
It'll be a slow process, because old habits are hard to break. But the change will come. Too many black people are doing too well in America today for the trend of voting 92% Democrat to continue.
All of this does not presage a wholesale black realignment toward the Republican party. A significant portion of the black middle class, for example, consists of government workers unlikely to be weaned from the party of government. In addition, the 50-year black allegiance to the Democrat party has fostered a vague perception that to vote Republican renders a black voter "inauthentic." Voting Democrat is often something less than an expression of support for a particular candidate than it is a matter of racial validation and solidarity.
WIIFM will prevail in the end. Blacks will stop casting votes to be "authentic" and start asking, "What's In It For ME?" When that happens, the Democrats will be in real trouble. Their 40-year Tarzan movie is over once the natives get restless.
And they will, as they prosper. That's just human nature.
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